This visual compares the theoretical normal distribution with actual U.S. stock market returns over the past decade. Outlined circles represent the bell curve implied by a normal distribution calibrated on observed mean and volatility. Filled circles represent realized weekly returns, stacked within return bins. Blue circles fall within the range predicted by the normal distribution. Red circles correspond to outcomes that exceed theoretical expectations, revealing the presence of fat tails and the disproportionate role of extreme market events.
Data & Method Weekly S&P 500 returns, August 2015–August 2025 (522 weeks), from the Kenneth R. French Data Library. Returns binned at 0.5% intervals. Normal distribution fitted to observed mean and standard deviation.
Product Specifications
Format: A5 (148 × 210 mm) Orientation: Portrait Paper: 300 g/m² premium uncoated paper Printing: High-resolution digital print Finish: Matte Frame: Not included Packaging: Flat protective sleeve Production: Printed in France (Paris)
